Fantasy Sports: Or, Some Reasons why Boycotting the Beijing Olympics is a Really Bad Idea

Following up on yesterday's post airing Sec Rice's thoughts on boycotting the Olympics, I think it's obvious the USG has effectively ruled out even a partial boycott of the games this summer. There are several reasons why the unabashed Realist in me considers this to be a prudent move.

First, there are legitimate concerns that the future of US-China relations is one of confrontation: that China's continuing rise (measured in terms of political influence, economic growth, and military modernization) will inevitably lead to conflict with the US, either politically or militarily. This is a rather pessimistic and worst-case-scenario forecast but one that could easily be set in motion by a series of irrational political moves and dangerous miscalculations. Snubbing Beijing at arguably one of the most important moments in its modern history would be a stepping stone toward spiraling tensions and a break from which it would be hard to recover quickly.

A related point is the profound impact that a rupture in Sino-American relations would have on stability, both in the East Asia and Pacific Rim region and the evolving international order. Boycotting the Olympics would deliver just that, and severely disrupt the emerging model of cooperation between Beijing and Washington and do undue damage to the relationship. Every thing from moderating climate change, persuading North Korea to abandon its nuclear program, keeping peace in the Taiwan Straits, and countless economic interests would immediately be put at risk. The tradeoff - supposedly gaining the moral high ground against Beijing - is not very high considering the costs.

Finally, it is more than likely there would only be a handful of nations joining in on the protest, leaving Washington merely isolating itself. This is an untenable position in the 21st century. A good portion of the developing and non-aligned world would regard such a move as an unjust interference in the affairs of a sovereign nation and a violation of the separation of sports and state. The end result of an Olympic boycott would be to pit the West against the rest - the US, the UK, perhaps France, and little else - and whatever human rights differences there would be between the boycotting nations and Beijing would persist while mistrust mounted.

FPW readers: what say you?