Waking to the Future: Khanna the Fortune Teller

Parag Khanna has a fascinating feature story in the NYT Magazine this weekend heralding what he calls the rise of the Big Three - that is, the EU, China, and the US - that will dominate the landscape of geopolitics in the 21st century and what he dubs the Second World states - Brazil, Iran, Vietnam, Malaysia, etc - whose favor the big players will vie for. Long gone is the bifurcation of world order witnessed in the Cold War and the subsequent "unipolar moment" it gave birth to on its squalid death bed. His prophecy of the world is one that is increasingly less dependent on an American-led order - indeed, one moving away from it - as wealth, power, and in turn, influence are redistributed as never before.

Khanna describes a world in which the search for energy, trade, and investment are redrawing the maps of international relations. The economies of states that once relied on one of the two beneficiaries in the Cold War are growing by day and with it comes their emerging independence. And as the developing get richer, there is less incentive to follow the party line from Washington and a greater incentive to chart one's own course. It creates new bargaining leverage for countries in trade negotiations and international conventions and provides the ability for agile leaders to build and sustain new initiatives that matter to a growing number of countries.

Over time, this catching up of others, so to speak, will limit US maneuverability, blunt its influence, and provide more constraints on the ability of the US to act unilaterally - particularly in the projection of force - as other actors have their own, powerful interests to protect that conflict threatens. As he writes,

"America’s unipolar moment has inspired diplomatic and financial countermovements to block American bullying and construct an alternate world order."

He does overstate the case of the EU as a unitary actor a bit and neglects the extent to which US favor and leadership is still sought. And interestingly, he all but downplays the significance of India in a new world. (The most attention New Delhi receives is when it is dismissed in one stroke as "lagging decades behind China in both development and strategic appetite.") But on the regional integration breaking ground in Southeast and East Asia and continuing in Europe (that more or less sidesteps the US) and the gradual irrelevance of the post-WWII order, the impact of this is well developed in the piece.

Some of today's developments such as an interest in Africa for raw materials and Central Asia for energy are nothing new, but Latin America's independence, a consolidated European strength, and an ever-growing and emboldened Asia are. The collective implications of all of this are not to be overlooked. New rules - and eventually, their enforcers - are swiftly emerging. At the very least, all of this underscores the importance attached to this November's election and how crucial it is that the next leader of this country is not only cognizant of our changing world, but has the vision to craft a foreign policy that offers more than "with us or against us" rhetoric, that leads rather than dictates, that values alliances, and so much more.

In any case, it's a good read. Check it out and report back in the comments section below.