The oil-rich Arab states on the Persian Gulf announced Sunday that they are considering a shared nuclear program for peaceful purposes.

The statement at the end of a meeting of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council was likely to rachet up concerns about the danger of nuclear weapons spreading in the Middle East. (The Associated Press)

Yesterday's decision by several Arab countries to pursue a collective nuclear program has some alarming implications. While it was specified that this program would be used solely for peaceful energy purposes, there is little reason to believe such statements. With Iran's rising influence in the Middle East and its (alleged) attempt to acquire a nuclear weapon, the Gulf states are no doubt attempting to balance Tehran's power with a nuclear program of their own.

Since pursuing a civilian nuclear energy program does not violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Gulf states could announce their intentions to pursue such a program with little
international outcry. Then, with the capabilities to produce nuclear power, they would only need to take the enrichment process a few steps further to be able to produce a nuclear bomb. If they were able to deceive the international community long enough, they could develop a weapon in time to counter the threat of an Iranian nuclear power. This, it seems likely, is what they are doing.

There are two major implications to this, as I see it. Neither of them are good. Below, I'll try to sketch out what I think they are.

1.) The Possibility of a Regional Nuclear Arms Race

While it's far from clear that Iran is developing a nuclear bomb, there is a good deal of suspicion that they are. The Gulf states, ruled by leaders with (generally) very different goals than the radical Iranian mullahs, do not want to be caught empty-handed if Tehran announces itself as a nuclear power. The result is that we might see some sort of nuclear arms race emerge in the Middle East. In a classic example of what international relations theorists call the "Security Dilemma," the Gulf states would develop a nuclear bomb to protect themselves from a perceived threat from Iran, and, in turn, Iran would feel obligated to pursue nuclear weapons to counter the perceived danger from the Gulf states.

2.) Growing Shia-Sunni Animosity

In the past few years, there has been a widening Shia-Sunni divide in the Middle East. The tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the animosity in Lebanon between Shiite supporters of Hezbollah and pro-government Sunnis, and the vicious sectarian war in Iraq are just a few examples.

The decision by the six Gulf states to pursue a nuclear program is, it seems, likely related to this Shia-Sunni split. The Gulf States are predominantly Sunni and they fear the rise of Iran, a Shiite theocracy that, they believe, could undermine their power in the region. Iran's influence has risen dramatically in the past few years with its decision to defy the United States and pursue a nuclear program, the rise of pro-Iranian Shiite political parties in Iraq, and its involvement with the increasingly-popular Shiite party, Hezbollah. With yesterday's decision by the Gulf states to pursue a nuclear program, the chasm between Shiites and Sunnis will only grow wider.